Last year, John McCain and Barack Obama both made half-hearted promises to opt into the public financing system for presidential candidates once-spearheaded by McCain himself. Now that these two men are the presumptive nominees for their respective parties, it seems following up on these promises might be difficult.

But if they do, we’re witnessing the complement to their campaigns already. Last night I watched a commercial on my television five or six times for VoteVets.org that showed a woman holding her baby and blasting McCain for wanting a 1,000 year war with Iraq (not a typo). The caption said she was an Iraq War veteran.

As long as federal election laws continue to allow these types of groups to independently fund and blast specific opponents with suggestive propaganda, we can continue to see these types of pieces. The very structure of the law makes it impossible for them to run positive ads for the candidates they want you to choose, since they can’t evoke support for a specific candidate through explicit calls for you to vote for them. What’s really upsetting for me is that I can completely see the “free speech” argument. It’s unAmerican to filter out bad speech just because you don’t like it. As long as people are telling the truth, you have no ground to stand on; frankly, sometimes you still don’t (see the injustice against John Kerry in ‘04).

Speaking of which, are the Swift Boat guys coming back too? I can never stand the wait for a good sequel.

I was fine defending her when she was the inevitable nominee. I’ve defended her for 8 years. This year I was given a choice between she and a man I consider a better candidate, so I made the choice. Alas, I’ve been increasingly disappointed in her tactics, and now I’m quite upset to read this…

In an interview with ABC News’ Cynthia McFadden to air on this evening’s “Nightline,” Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., says it’s tougher for her to run as a woman than it is for her male opponent.

Asked why she thinks so many women may be feeling sorry for her, Clinton said, “I think a lot of women project their own feelings and their lives onto me, and they see how hard this is. It’s hard. It’s hard being a woman out there. It is obviously challenging with some of the things that are said that are not even personal to me so much as they are about women.

“And I think women just sort of shake their head,” Clinton continued. “My friends do. They say, ‘Oh, my gosh, this is so hard.’ Well, it’s supposed to be hard. I’m running for the hardest job in the world. No one has ever done this. No woman has ever won a presidential primary before I won New Hampshire. This is hard. And I don’t expect any sympathy, I don’t expect any kind of, you know, allowances or special privileges, because I knew what I was getting myself into.

“Every so often I just wish that it were a little more of an even playing field,” she said, “but, you know, I play on whatever field is out there.”

The field is always even when you’re Hillary FREAKIN’ Clinton running against anybody else. Actually, it’s skewed in your favor! It takes a royally ill-prepared campaign to mess that up. You are a superstar in your own right and have been prominent on the national scene since 1992. Your opponent has only been nationally prominent since 2007. The playing field is more than fair. In fact, it’s probably been something for him to overcome, not you.

Desperate times…

9:15pm – Hillary keeps interrupting to drive her point home…three times now and Brian Williams can’t cut her mic like O’Reilly would. Trainwreck moment #1.

9:19pm – Hillary go boom. Uncomfortable, awkward, desperate joke about the media picking on her, always making her answer the first question, and getting Senator Obama a pillow for his chair all fall flat, actually inducing an audience groan and a single boo. Trainwreck moment #2.

9:25pm – Russert has to shout over Hillary to get her to address the question. She’s seriously embittered on this stage right now. Trainwreck moment #3. If you’re not watching this thing right now, you better damn well change the channel to MSNBC!

9:38pm – Did Barack Obama just doze off? I can’t tell.

9:44pm – Yeah, I’ll admit it: Tim Russert doesn’t like Hillary Clinton.

9:48pm – “Television doesn’t stop Senator, we have to take a break…” says Brian Williams as he interrupts Hillary’s interruption, promising to let her speak as soon as they return. Someone is livid. I’m pretty sure she’ll be denouncing NBC News tomorrow and for the next six days.

9:52pm – Hillary was a little late getting back to the stage after the debate. I thought she left in a tizzy. Barack Obama was seated firmly from the moment the cameras returned. Somebody didn’t have to run offstage to get advice from his handlers.

9:54pm – Obama addressed Hillary’s sarcasm quite well, even getting a cackle out of Clinton. Also, Brian Williams reneged on his promise to let her speak first after the break. NBC hates Hillary.

9:58pm – Moderators begging Clinton to let them move on. Trainwreck #3.5 (since it’s getting old). This is going to be perceived as a candidate desperate and angry about her decline, even if it’s not the case. She needs to lighten up or her likability is sapped entirely. And then Obama gets a laugh…insult to injury.

10:15pm – Second commercial break. Please take this time to consult a dictionary or thesaurus for the differentiation between “reject” and “denounce.” Then, dial (703) 469-2008 and inform the Clinton campaign. Thanks for taking part in the democratic process.

10:28pm – Obama’s taking the last word. Clinton looks tired, but smirks as he says he’s proud to have been in the campaign with her. He throws in a little bit of change and hope, and the music rolls.

10:31pm – False alarm! Williams starts a wrap-up now, throwing it first to Obama, giving Clinton the technical last word. His is pleasant, grateful and positive, even correcting Brian Williams’ assertion that he should answer why Clinton is unworthy with “she is absolutely worthy…I certainly think I’m better, otherwise I wouldn’t be running.”

10:33pm – Hillary Clinton: “I still intend to do everything I can to win.” Point taken.

For some reason, I always react to this kind of news too slowly, and usually it doesn’t do the person justice. I’d like to end that pattern here…

Amy Carpenter was a simultaneously vibrant and dark-humored soul. She had no trouble being inappropriate in the funniest and most disarming way. Every time I saw her, it was like running into an old friend, even if it had only been a few hours since we last spoke. She was a font of wisdom and sometimes random knowledge that always tempered every conversation with a subtext of advice. Valuable advice.

I spent a lot of time sitting in her office in Founders Hall, just past the elevators, seeking relationship notes, talking about politics, music, life, and our shared experiences working for UNCA Housing. As a Resident Director, she was like no other, a rebel. She didn’t always follow the rules to the strictest of interpretations, but when the time came to crack down, she was authority. As a friend and mentor, I enjoyed her so much, always nervous about gaining her valued friendship and respect. This is someone you want to have in your corner, Ray.

When I wrapped up my year as a Resident Assistant at UNCA, the management gave each of us personalized mousepads with group photos from our remarkably effective team-building retreats and individual shots of each of us at different points throughout the year. On my pad, there were three standard “Have a good summer” messages from Amanda, Jesse and Jeremy. And then I had this one:

I enjoy you so much! Thank you for being so personal with me and letting me share your life. I wish you all the best. Stay in touch!–Amy Carpenter

I was so honored to read this. Someone whom I respected so much and thought of so highly had just given me the ultimate compliment by returning the favor. And now, as I read and reread her message, I regret not doing what she asked of me. I didn’t stay in touch. After finishing my year as an RA, I moved off campus and only saw Amy a couple times a month.

The last time was by luck in 2005. Katy and I walked to the Charlotte Street Pub from her shared home with Sarahbeth (both fellow RAs) and ended up bumping into Amy and her friend, Dean (I believe). Amy’s hair was growing back and she let us know she was doing well. We all sat around the giant, graffiti-ridden table near the door for hours, laughing louder and louder about those same old topics and dishing on everyone we could recall from our time at UNCA. It was perhaps the most fun I have ever had with a former “boss.”

Amy, I enjoyed you so much. Thank you for being so personal with me and letting me share your life. I am so deeply honored to have known you during what none of us ever thought would be the final act of your life. I’ve missed you for years and will now miss you forever. May God bless you.

Clinton said “every Democrat should be outraged” at two “false” mailers that Obama sent to voters in Ohio.

We find that a mailer criticizing her position on trade is indeed misleading. One that attacks her health-care plan we have previously described as straining the facts, though not exactly “false.”

Trade: A mailer showing a locked plant gate quotes Clinton as saying she believed NAFTA was “a boon” to the economy. Those are not her words and Obama was wrong to put quote marks around them. In fact, she’s been described by a biographer as privately opposing NAFTA in the White House.

Health Care: A second mailer said Clinton’s health care plan “forces everyone to buy insurance, even if you can’t afford it.” We have previously said that mailer “lacks context” and strains the facts. But both Obama and Clinton have been exaggerating their differences on this issue.

We’ve also previously criticized Clinton for sending a mailer that twisted Obama’s words and gave a false picture of his proposals on Social Security, home foreclosures and energy.

We leave it to our readers to decide whether they should be “outraged” or not, and at whom.

The message here is that her red-faced, mailer-waving anger is somewhat hypocritical and perhaps designed to paint her as impassioned in the run-up to March 4. The problem with these kinds of displays is that they show the wrong kind of passion and people don’t vote for complainers, even when they’re right (see Ralph Nader).

Apparently she filmed 9 different spots like these, each making fun of a famous MTV moment:

Looks like MTV has ended the boobie-related Janet boycott. She’ll be artist of the week next week, in celebration of the release of Discipline on Tuesday!

Just bless him. Because God has blessed all of us with his presence. Keep at it, Huck. I <3 Huckabee. Rah rah rah!

From WOAI Radio in Texas (via Drudge):

Huckabee: A Deadlocked Convention is My Goal
By Jim Forsyth
Friday, February 22, 2008

In an interview with 1200 WOAI news during his swing through Texas, long shot Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee outlined a strategy which has him not winning the GOP nomination outright, but pushing the nomination to the September Republican National Convention, which he says will turn to him as the most ‘conservative alternative.’

The ‘brokered convention’ plan is in stark contrast to Huckabee’s previous sunny predictions of a sweep to victory in the primaries and caucuses on the shoulders of adoring family values conservatives.

Huckabee said his ‘brokered convention’ strategy is predicated on a victory in Texas, the country’s largest Republican state.

“We think Texas is an important state,” Huckabee told me. “We know how important it is to win Texas.”

Huckabee says with an upset win in Texas, and a win in the Ohio Republican primary the same day, Huckabee could deny front runner John McCain the nomination in the primaries.

“If we win Texas, I think it changes the dynamics of this race. It could well go all the way to the convention. If the convention delegates pick the president, chances are they would pick the most conservative. I would be the one they would end up picking, if that’s the criteria.”

Huckabee also called for more debates with McCain.

“I think we ought to have debates. I think it’s not Republican and not American to shut off the debate and the process of the election.”

Despite the endorsement of McCain of Governor Rick Perry and both of the state’s Republican senators, a victory by Huckabee in the Texas Republican primary is a long shot, but is not out of the question. Social conservatives of the type who have flocked to the Huckabee candidacy control the levers of the Texas GOP, and have the ability to turn out large numbers of evangelical voters in early voting, and on primary day.

“I’m like one of those tiny little basketball teams in the Final Four, and nobody thought they could get there,” Huckabee said. “I think it’s a credit to the commitment of those who have been supporting me.”

He also compared the drive that keeps him going to the dream that the defenders of the Alamo fought for in 1836.

“You don’t engage in battles only because you anticipate you’re going to win them,” he said. “You engage in your battles because you believe that they’re right.”

Looks like another mostly successful string of predictions, with 80% accuracy by the RayRay. Overall, I’ve predicted 29 races correctly out of 37, usually weeks ahead and often without the benefit of polling.

I’ll have March predictions for you later (here’s a hint: she loses).

Feb. 9
Washington – Obama CORRECT
Nebraska – Obama CORRECT
Louisiana – Obama CORRECT
US Virgin Islands – Obama CORRECT

Feb. 10
Maine – Obama CORRECT

Feb. 12
Virginia – Obama CORRECT
DC – Obama CORRECT
Maryland – Clinton WRONG

Feb. 19
Wisconsin – Clinton WRONG
Hawaii – Obama CORRECT

A new Zogby poll shows that Democrats have a better chance of winning the White House if Senator Barack Obama is the nominee. This continues a trend I’ve not been shy about pointing out.

Senator John McCain beats Senator Hillary Clinton by 12 points in the new Zogby poll that doesn’t yet reflect public reaction to her stunning loss in Wisconsin yesterday:

McCain 50% Clinton 38%

On the other hand, likely voters choose Obama over McCain, and by a modestly healthy margin. After winning 10 in a row, expect the gap to widen:

Obama 47% McCain 40%

To break these demographics down, Obama continues to win big among younger voters, but now leads Clinton among likely voters aged 50 to 64 by a 57% to 29% margin. That’s the Clinton demographic! Among African Americans, Obama leads McCain 80% to 3%, while among that same group, Clinton only leads McCain 58% to 18%. Why is this important? Well, examining voter groups finds that McCain pulls voters from Clinton that he doesn’t from Obama.

Among every age group under 65, Obama beats McCain in a national matchup. But if Hillary’s the nominee, then McCain beats her in every single age group! And Clinton only beats McCain among women by a 47-41 margin. Women!!!

It seems the only group in which Obama doesn’t defeat McCain is white Republicans.

But Obama’s appeal has even continued to increase among whites in general, perhaps the last group to come around to accepting his viability. He now trails McCain by only 6 points in that group, a gap that has been steadily narrowing over time.

My prognosis? It makes good strategic sense to choose Obama as the nominee. He’s won 10 states in a row, and 25 overall including DC and the Virgin Islands. Clinton has only won 13. He leads in delegates, pledged or otherwise. He consistently captures independents that tend to choose McCain if only given Clinton as the alternative.

Nominating him also prevents the GOP from mobilizing their anti-Hillary base to vote for McCain. Republican voters are mostly underwhelmed by McCain right now, but giving them the risk of President Hillary will rev up their fundraising and GOTV engines like crazy. Not to be alarmist–and I so am and it’s totally unfair–but a vote for Hillary now equals two votes for McCain this fall.

It turns out Michael Jackson’s “Thriller 25″ is ineligible to chart on the Billboard 200 Albums list because of its catalog status (meaning it was released more than two years ago). It will therefore open at #1 on the Billboard Pop Catalog chart next week after selling 166,000 copies.

Just to make a point, Jack Johnson’s new album continues its stride at #1, selling 180,000 copies. The #2 album is Amy Winehouse’s “Back to Black,” which sold 115,000 copies.

Translation: if “Thriller 25″ were eligible, then it would’ve gotten a lot more press this week than last week, bowing at #2 after being off the charts in the US since 1985.

Conspiracy! :-p

9:10pm: McCain has won, whoopty-doo. Anyways, it feels like the Clintons used Wisconsin as a test ground for negative campaigning. Just today, her campaign went from leaking that they would be open to poaching Obama’s pledged delegates, to rescinding that leak, to demanding Obama denounce it as well (which his team did in about thirty seconds, reiterating that even considering such a strategy would be outrageous).

9:20pm: NBC News now projecting Obama will win Wisconsin. Ding dang, that’s a primary!

9:22pm: Fox and Drudge agree. CNN isn’t quite ready to jump yet, nor is Politico.

9:24pm: I’m going to have to go pick up Dave from the Metro shortly, but I will say this beforehand: if the final margin in Wisconsin is greater than 7 points, Hillary won’t have much of an arsenal left. It would prove that “negative Clintons” turn voters off…way off.

9:58pm: Obama is speaking now, and since McCain and Clinton have already talked, I imagine all the networks are just going to run with Obama for as long as he has anything to say.

10:30pm: I have so many questions.

Going negative did NOT work for the Clintons and they’ve lost 10 contests in a row (counting Hawaii). How negative will the Clintons continue to go in the next two weeks? It only seems to drive up her own negative ratings, but I still see her getting as dirty as she can with what little ammo she has.

Now that it looks like Edwards’ women voters are finally coming around to Obama, will he stump for Obama in Texas in the run-up to March 4? I predict Edwards may be ready to make the endorsement, which will go the distance in closing the gap in that state.

What is Obama’s Ohio strategy? Other than repeating what he’s done in Wisconsin lately, I have no idea what he’s planning to do there. Will he be able to prevent Clinton from winning 51%? Obamentum says “probably.”