I have class at 5:10. It’s 4:50 and I have 8 or so blocks to walk. Do I do it? I just finished a weekend of 18.5 hours of driving. But it’s our first meeting back since the break and I missed class the Tuesday beforehand. *sigh* RayRay’s tired.

Update: I went to class. Even got here early. A little sweaty, but early nonetheless.

Start acting like the nominee. Governor Richardson just endorsed you–go with him. It’s a strike at Clinton, since everyone sees Hillary and Bill (Richardson) as the likely dream team and two birds of a feather. It also furthers public opinion that you’re better organized because you will have already assembled your team. Furthermore, Richardson brings experience and a certain demographic boost that has been iffy for you thus far. And you’re then running a complete team in Pennsylvania, which will psychologically impact many voters.

Why do I think it’s time? Well, Edwards was on Leno last night. I watched with bated breath and he endorsed nobody, though his praise for Clinton was a little meatier. I think he may swing to the right there, which could make all of this sort of shocking. Is Clinton picking John Edwards? Why the Hell was he doing press?!?!

If Obama names his VP first, he forces everyone else to respond in kind to keep up with the leader. If McCain names his VP first, nobody else has to do anything either way. If Clinton names her VP first, it wouldn’t look good, since she’s not leading by any quantitative measure–she’d be accused AGAIN of the sort of foolishness that accompanied her offers to give the Veep slot to Obama, even though he’s beating her.

Further, by picking anyone now, Clinton essentially rules out running with Obama, which settles that question for the segment of the populace hoping for an Obama/Clinton or Clinton/Obama ticket. She’s in a position now where she can’t be expected to rule out running with John Edwards for a boost in votes, but it won’t help her in the long run since that will look desperate and ineffectual in the generals.

On the contrary, if Obama goes ahead and names his VP, then he automatically rules out Clinton (which everyone expects anyways). By picking Richardson, he attaches an enormous resume and a Clinton cabinet official to himself four weeks before the next big contest. But even just by picking SOMEBODY, he gets a huge boost in media coverage for at least a week, as the press rush to cover why he decided on them, how he went about deciding, and the background story on whom he decided upon. And then there’s the massive coverage of the unusual timing, about which he can deny any attempt at manipulating the race or taking on airs of inevitability just by saying he is organized and ready to lead, so much so that he’s already assembled his own “dream team.” And he should use that language, too!

I think this is about to get very interesting and NOBODY is even guessing at it. Am I crazy?

I believe it, since she sounded raspy last week and on several radio shows in the last few days–she’s sick, not “sick.” Too bad for SNL (and me). Hopefully she’ll make up the performance this season.

From the AP:

Janet Jackson has dropped out of her upcoming “Saturday Night Live” performance because she has the flu, the singer’s representative said Tuesday.

“Janet did go to the hospital last night due to the fact she’s been suffering from this flu that’s kicked a lot of people’s behinds,” publicist Patti Webster told The Associated Press in an e-mail. “She was never admitted and she is fine.”

Still, Webster said Jackson–who visited a Los Angeles hospital–was pulling out of the March 15 “SNL” telecast because “she needs some time to get better.”

“SNL” spokesman Marc Liepis said he did not know what music act will replace Jackson.

Jackson, 41, was scheduled to perform live Saturday night in support of her latest album, “Discipline,” which was released last month.

MSNBC calls it for Obama and says that he has now completely eliminated Hillary’s net gain from last Tuesday’s triple-wins. They’re also saying that there are still districts in Texas, California and Ohio where Obama should net a few more delegates based on provisional ballot counts coming slowly.

Furthermore, Chuck Todd says that Hillary needs to win nearly 65% of all remaining delegates to get to 2025. Obama only needs 46% of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination.

Will somebody please move their chess pieces over the next six weeks so the Dems can wrap this ordeal up and start fighting John McCain? I need a break from all the in-fighting. More out-fighting!

Geraldine Ferraro, first woman VP nominee and Clinton fundraiser: “If Obama was a white man, he would not be in this position.”

I think it’s interesting that she says something so similar to the “black people got it made and it’s unfair” ethic of the average white supremacist on the same day as the Mississippi primary (of all places). This is definitely what they call “priming,” where a subconscious response is elicited by appeals to racial attitudes, usually among white poll respondents.

There’s a reason it came from Ferraro and a reason Clinton hasn’t fired her. Obama’s chief foreign policy adviser called Hillary a “monster” in a Scottish newspaper and they fired her the same day!

What’s everyone going to do with their lost hour? I thought I’d not go for a walk or not clean the bathroom for 60 minutes.

Now that it’s March and the Madness is setting in, I hear from the alumni emails (which mostly annoy me) that the UNCA men’s basketball team almost went to the tournament this year. Well, the alumni email told me they might go. They didn’t update me that UNCA lost to Winthrop and settled for the NIT dealio. Sorry guys.

Lastly, I love John Legend and Stephen Colbert even more when they’re together. On Thursday, I watched this and swooned a little–Thriller is everywhere!

The state-by-state polling of the potential electoral vote outcomes has begun, with Obama and Clinton both besting John McCain if the election was today. But it looks better for Obama.

Obama at the top of the ticket wins a bunch of red states, including North Dakota, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia. Clinton at the top of the ticket loses every state west of the Mississippi river except California, New Mexico, Minnesota, and Arkansas, all of which are somewhat obvious wins for her. As of today, Obama wins 280 electoral votes to McCain’s 258. If Clinton is the nominee, she beats McCain 276 to 262, a much tighter race.

Check out the maps here: SurveyUSA. Keep in mind that Clinton beats McCain in Florida by 9 points today, but Obama only loses by 2. That may be because he has yet to step foot in that state. Everywhere he campaigns, he gains in popularity quite quickly, so I have no doubt that one will turn around.

Obama also loses to McCain by only a point or two in Nebraska, New Jersey, North Carolina and Texas of all places. If he is the nominee, it is conceivable that he could walk away with 344 electoral votes if his efforts in those states pays off!

As for Clinton, she could potentially take Michigan, Tennessee and Washington from McCain if she was on the top of the ticket, since those are the closest gaps to bridge. That would put her as high as 315 electoral votes.

Translation: Obama’s your guy, Clinton’s a riskier proposition, and McCain is toast–at least according to today’s polls (which isn’t saying much in March).

Jonathan Alter is really enjoying crunching these numbers. He did something similar on Monday (I referenced it yesterday) and today he offers an even bleaker estimate for Clinton’s chances. Go figure!

Check out the hypotheticals from Newsweek:

Let’s assume that on Saturday in Wyoming, Hillary’s March 4 momentum gives her an Ohio-style 10-point win, confounding every expectation. Next Tuesday in Mississippi, where African-Americans play a big role in the Democratic primary, she shocks the political world by again winning 55-45.

Then on April 22, the big one-Pennsylvania-and it’s a Hillary blow-out: 60-40, with Clinton picking up a whopping 32 delegates. She wins both of Guam’s two delegates on May 3 and Indiana’s proximity to Illinois does Obama no good on May 6. The Hoosiers go for Hillary 55-45 and the same day brings another huge upset in a heavily African-American state. Enough blacks desert Obama to give North Carolina to Hillary in another big win, 55-45, netting her seven more delegates.

May 13 in West Virginia is no kinder to Obama, and he loses by double digits, netting Clinton two delegates. Another 60-40 landslide on May 20 in Kentucky nets her 11 more. The same day brings Oregon, a classic Obama state. Ooops! He loses there 52-48. Hillary wins by 10 in Montana and South Dakota on June 3 and the scheduled primary season ends on June 7 in Puerto Rico with another big Viva Clinton! Hillary pulls off a 60-40 landslide, giving her another 11 delegates.

Given that I’ve put not a thumb but my whole fist on the scale, this fanciful calculation gives Hillary the lead, right? Actually, it makes the score 1,625 to 1,584 for Obama. A margin of 39 pledged delegates may not seem like much, but remember, the chances of Obama losing state after state by 20-point margins are slim to none.

So no matter how you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February. What happens then? Will Democrats come together before the Denver Convention opens in late August?

We know that Hillary is unlikely to quit. This will leave it up to the superdelegates to figure out how to settle on a nominee. With 205 already committed to Obama, he would need another 200 uncommitted superdelegates to get to the magic number of 2025 delegates needed to nominate. But that’s only under my crazy pro-Hillary projections. More likely, Obama would need about 50-100 of the approximately 500 uncommitted superdelegates, which shouldn’t be too difficult.

But let’s say all the weeks of negative feeling have taken a toll. Let’s say that Clinton supporters are feeling embittered and inclined to sit on their hands. It’s not too hard to imagine prominent superdelegates asking Obama to consider putting Hillary on the ticket.

What I really want to see are polling data incorporating the Obama-Clinton ticket against McCain. Does it diminish or raise Obama’s chances? What is the reaction from Rush Limbaugh and Bill O’Reilly to that possibility? Does it keep Bill Clinton out of the White House enough to quiet the Right? Does it give Obama national security credentials that Clinton herself exposed him as needing? Does she really have any credentials either, or at least enough to overcome McCain? And what if McCain picks a heavyweight like Colin Powell, Charlie Crist, Condi Rice, Mark Sanford, or Tim Pawlenty? I wanna know NOW!